Statisticians Predict The Premier League TOP SIX: Where Will City, Liverpool, United, Chelsea And Arsenal Finish?
With the new Premier League campaign upon us, every pundit in the UK has been making their pre-season predictions ahead of the big kick-off.
However, there are more objective opinions out there who use statistical models to determine who is favourite for the title.
FiveThirtyEight have a sophisticated modelling system that allows them to assess every Premier League fixture to come up with a probable result.
It also enables them to make judgements about possible title winners. Press the next page as we list who they think will finish in the top six.
6) Tottenham – 3% Chance of Winning The League (25% Chance Of Top 4)
The appointment of Nuno Espirito Santo was an underwhelming choice and the uncertainty surrounding Harry Kane’s future means there is a lack of stability at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium currently.
Nuno may well surprise some people with his team’s performances but, if they do lose Kane, it will spell big trouble in terms of a top-four finish, let alone a title challenge.
5) Arsenal – 3% Chance of Winning The League (27% Chance Of Top 4)
The Gunners are surprisingly rated (marginally) above Spurs by FiveThirtyEight. They’ve had a pretty difficult summer, having failed to get rid of some deadwood, whilst only signing three players.
Arteta’s team may begin to take shape before the end of August, but you wouldn’t be surprised if they are on the end of some poor results early in the campaign before finishing strongly.
4) Manchester United – 10% Chance of Winning The League
FiveThirtyEight don’t seem to believe that the additions of Jadon Sancho and Raphael Varane will boost United’s chances of winning the league.
After finishing a distant second to City last season, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side were expected to kick on following a strong transfer window but we shall see how they start the campaign.
3) Chelsea – 16% Chance of Winning The League
Their percentage may increase slightly after the deal for Romelu Lukaku is confirmed but Chelsea are currently tipped to finish third, despite winning the Champions League under Thomas Tuchel.
Lukaku’s goals will be very important in moving them closer to City but FiveThirtyEight still don’t believe it will be enough for them to win the title.
2) Liverpool – 21% Chance of Winning The League
Considering their lack of transfer activity, and the poor second half to last season, it will raise a few eyebrows seeing the Reds so high up in the rankings.
Jurgen Klopp’s men do have a settled squad, though, and with both Virgil van Dijk and Joe Gomez having returned to fitness, their defence should be a lot stronger than last year.
1) Manchester City – 40% Chance of Winning The League
The £100m signing of Jack Grealish, plus the possible arrival of Kane, mean that City are likely to be more formidable than ever this campaign.
With a 2 in 5 chance of retaining their league title, it seems FiveThirtyEight are confident that Pep Guardiola’s team will dominate the league once again.
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