The Premier League Table Based On xG – City Are 1st But There Are Some Surprise Names In The Top 5

David Tully

7 months ago

Categories: Galleries, Manchester City News

Tags: Arsenal, aston villa, Brentford, Brighton, Chelsea, Everton, Fulham, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle United, Sheffield United, Southampton, spurs, West Ham, wolves

We are 8 games into the season and the Premier League table is beginning to take shape.

Of course, in any sport, there is an element of luck in terms of how results come about. A team can be second-best for most of the 90 minutes and still secure the 3 points. For that reason, it can be interesting to see how the table would look if the points always went to the best team (statistically speaking).

We can work out the expected points (xPts) for each club by looking at the xG score from each match. That can then be used to determine the expected result (win, draw or loss).

Press the next page as we count down the Premier League’s top 5 based on xG this season (figures from Understat.com)

5) Tottenham (down from 1st) – 15.16 xPts

Ange Postecoglou’s side are nearly 5 points better off in the actual Premier League table than they should be based on their xG results.

It means Spurs’s position at the top has relied on them being more clinical than their opponents in front of goal, whilst also riding their luck slightly in terms of the goals they’ve conceded.

Based on their current performance level, it would be a surprise if they are challenging for the title come May.

However, there is no doubt that Champions League qualification is a very realistic possibility.

4) Arsenal (down from 2nd) – 15.32 xPts

Like their North London rivals, the Gunners’ expected points total suggests they have collected more points than should have done based on their performances.

Mikel Arteta’s men are still in the mix for a top 4/5 finish but, unless they are able to play better in the coming months, another title challenge may not be on the cards.

In their first eight matches, they have scored a similar number of goals (16) than their xG (15.8), but they have been slightly more fortunate defensively.

Arsenal have conceded 6 times so far when, in reality, their defensive displays suggest that they should have let in about 8.

3) Chelsea (up from 11th) – 15.40 xPts

The Blues have underperformed by a massive degree in their opening 8 games this season, with their expected points being 4.4 higher than their actual total.

Mauricio Pochettino’s team have been very poor in both boxes, having scored nearly 5 fewer goals than their xG, whilst conceding almost 2 more than their xG against.

Chelsea are seemingly doing a lot of things right in terms of creating chances and restricting the opponents’ shots on goal but, ultimately, they are not getting results.

What that means in reality is they are sitting in midtable rather than in the top 3.

2) Newcastle United (up from 8th) – 16.34 xPts

The Magpies struggled to get things together at the start of the season, losing 3 of their opening 4 league fixtures.

However, even in those matches (such as the defeats to Manchester City and Liverpool), they were unlucky not to take away any points.

That is borne out in the xG numbers, with Eddie Howe’s side being the second-best performers in the English top flight.

Based on their recent form, it looks as though they will continue their rise up the table in the weeks ahead.

1) Manchester City (up from 3rd) – 17.97 xPts

Despite some concerning results in recent weeks, the underlying numbers still say that the reigning champions are the best team in the Premier League.

Pep Guardiola’s men actually have 18 points, which is almost bang on the money in terms of xPts.

For that reason, fans shouldn’t be too concerned about some of the performances they have seen recently.

As long as they maintain their current trajectory, they will be there and thereabouts, challenging for top spot by the end of the season.